Tag: estimating

“If you don’t have these 4 things you don’t have a plan: 1) Estimating Parameters, 2) WBS, 3) Activity Duration, Work and Cost, and 4) Network Diagram.” – Ray Coker

These four techniques also make up the main feature set for Microsoft Project. In fact, they are the process, or way to build a plan in Microsoft Project. If you want a real plan, you don’t get to skip over a particular technique. Skip over one piece of the model and what you have is nothing more than an incomplete estimate. Most people, I know…

“Unless estimates are partially derived with proven technique they are nothing less than a WAG” – Ray Coker

If you are an expert and you know, you know. But on a lot of our project activities or work packages, we don’t “know” the cost, effort or duration so we estimate. If we estimate based on our experience and or memory, regardless of how expert we might actually be, it typically is nothing more than WAG – a Wild-Ass…

Estimating is what you do when you don’t know. ~ Sherman Kent

Last week the Central Intelligence Agency celebrated the 10th anniversary of the Sherman Kent School for Intelligence Analysis. When the school was established by the Directorate of Intelligence (DI) in early 2000, it was not a hard decision to select Sherman Kent as its namesake. Kent dedicated his career at CIA to producing intelligence analysis to support policy decisionmakers.  Because…